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Background  It is the aim of the World Health Organisation to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths (STH) as a health problem in children. To this end, the goal is to increase anthelmintic treatment coverage for soil transmitted helminths to reach 75 % in pre-school aged and school aged children by 2020 in endemic countries. In this paper, we use mathematical models to investigate the impact of achieving this goal on the burdens of  Ascaris lumbricoides ,  Trichuris trichuria  and hookworm.    Methods  We employ a deterministic fully age-structured model of STH transmission and mass drug administration to examine the changes in worm burden in response to the known and projected coverage trends in children up to 2020 and beyond. Parameters are estimated from worm expulsion data and age intensity profiles before treatment using maximum likelihood methods. Model validation is performed using reinfection studies for  Ascaris  and analyses are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the predicted outcomes to variation in parameter estimates including transmission intensity (R 0 ), children’s contributions to the pool of infective stages and drug coverage levels.    Results  The impact of the required increase in coverage trends are quite different across the three species.  Ascaris  burdens are reduced dramatically by 2020 with elimination predicted within studied the setting a further 10 years. For  Trichuris  and hookworm, however, impact is more limited, due to issues of drug efficacy ( Trichuris ) and distribution of worms in the population (hookworm). Sensitivity analysis indicates that results are largely robust. However, validation against  Ascaris  data indicates that assumptions concerning re-infection among children may have to be revised.    Conclusions  The 2020 coverage target is predicted to have a major impact on  Ascaris  levels by 2020. However, there is evidence from model validation that  Ascaris  in children is more resilient to treatment than currently assumed in the model. Broader coverage across all age classes is required to break transmission for hookworm and alternative dual drug treatment approaches are needed for  Trichuris .    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1135-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

parasites and vectors

What impact will the achievement of the current World Health Organisation targets for anthelmintic treatment coverage in children have on the intensity of soil transmitted helminth infections?