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Background  Neoadjuvant chemotherapy is increasingly given preoperatively to shrink breast tumours prior to surgery. This approach also provides the opportunity to study the molecular changes associated with treatment and evaluate whether on-treatment sequential samples can improve response and outcome predictions over diagnostic or excision samples alone.    Methods  This study included a total of 97 samples from a cohort of 50 women (aged 29–76, with 46% ER+ and 20% HER2+ tumours) with primary operable breast cancer who had been treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Biopsies were taken at diagnosis, at 2 weeks on-treatment, mid-chemotherapy, and at resection. Fresh frozen samples were sequenced with Ion AmpliSeq Transcriptome yielding expression values for 12,635 genes. Differential expression analysis was performed across 16 patients with a complete pathological response (pCR) and 34 non-pCR patients, and over treatment time to identify significantly differentially expressed genes, pathways, and markers indicative of response status. Prediction accuracy was compared with estimations of established gene signatures, for this dataset and validated using data from the I-SPY 1 Trial.    Results  Although changes upon treatment are largely similar between the two cohorts, very few genes were found to be consistently different between responders and non-responders, making the prediction of response difficult. AAGAB was identified as a novel potential on-treatment biomarker for pathological complete response, with an accuracy of 100% in the NEO training dataset and 78% accuracy in the I-SPY 1 testing dataset. AAGAB levels on-treatment were also significantly predictive of outcome ( p  = 0.048,  p  = 0.0036) in both cohorts. This single gene on-treatment biomarker had greater predictive accuracy than established prognostic tests, Mammaprint and PAM50 risk of recurrence score, although interestingly, both of these latter tests performed better in the on-treatment rather than the accepted pre-treatment setting.    Conclusion  Changes in gene expression measured in sequential samples from breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy resulted in the identification of a potentially novel on-treatment biomarker and suggest that established prognostic tests may have greater prediction accuracy on than before treatment. These results support the potential use and further evaluation of on-treatment testing in breast cancer to improve the accuracy of tumour response prediction.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s13058-019-1159-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

On-treatment biomarkers can improve prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer