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Background  Breast cancer prognosis is strongly associated with tumor size at diagnosis. We aimed to identify factors associated with diagnosis of large (> 2 cm) compared to small tumors, and to examine implications for long-term prognosis.    Methods  We examined 2012 women with invasive breast cancer, of whom 1466 had screen-detected and 546 interval cancers that were incident between 2001 and 2008 in a population-based screening cohort, and followed them to 31 December 2015. Body mass index (BMI) was ascertained after diagnosis at the time of study enrollment during 2009. PD was measured based on the contralateral mammogram within 3 years before diagnosis. We used multiple logistic regression modeling to examine the association between tumor size and body mass index (BMI), mammographic percent density (PD), or hormonal and genetic risk factors. Associations between the identified risk factors and, in turn, the outcomes of local recurrence, distant metastases, and death (153 events in total) in women with breast cancer were examined using Cox regression. Analyses were carried out according to mode of detection.    Results  BMI and PD were the only factors associated with tumor size at diagnosis. For BMI (≥25 vs. < 25 kg/m 2 ), the multiple adjusted odds ratios (OR) were 1.37 (95% CI 1.02–1.83) and 2.12 (95% CI 1.41–3.18), for screen-detected and interval cancers, respectively. For PD (≥20 vs. < 20%), the corresponding ORs were 1.72 (95% CI 1.29–2.30) and 0.60 (95% CI 0.40–0.90). Among women with interval cancers, those with high BMI had worse prognosis than women with low BMI (hazard ratio 1.70; 95% CI 1.04–2.77), but PD was not associated with the hazard rate. Among screen-detected cancers, neither BMI nor PD was associated with the hazard rate.    Conclusions  In conclusion, high BMI was associated with the risk of having a tumor larger than 2 cm at diagnosis. Among women with interval cancer, high BMI was associated with worse prognosis. We believe that women with high BMI should be especially encouraged to attend screening.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s13058-018-0962-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Long-term prognostic implications of risk factors associated with tumor size: a case study of women regularly attending screening