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Background  Thymidine kinase 1 (TK1) is a cell cycle-regulated enzyme with peak expression in the S phase during DNA synthesis, and it is an attractive biomarker of cell proliferation. Serum TK1 activity has demonstrated prognostic value in patients with early-stage breast cancer. Because cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors prevent G 1 /S transition, we hypothesized that serum TK1 could be a biomarker for CDK4/6 inhibitors. We examined the drug-induced change in serum TK1 as well as its correlation with change in tumor Ki-67 levels in patients enrolled in the NeoPalAna trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT01723774).    Methods  Patients with clinical stage II/III estrogen receptor-positive (ER+)/HER2-negative breast cancer enrolled in the NeoPalAna trial received an initial 4 weeks of anastrozole, followed by palbociclib on cycle 1, day 1 (C1D1) for four 28-day cycles, unless C1D15 tumor Ki-67 was > 10%, in which case patients went off study owing to inadequate response. Surgery occurred following 3–5 weeks of washout from the last dose of palbociclib, except in eight patients who received palbociclib (cycle 5) continuously until surgery. Serum TK1 activity was determined at baseline, C1D1, C1D15, and time of surgery, and we found that it was correlated with tumor Ki-67 and TK1 messenger RNA (mRNA) levels.    Results  Despite a significant drop in tumor Ki-67 with anastrozole monotherapy, there was no statistically significant change in TK1 activity. However, a striking reduction in TK1 activity was observed 2 weeks after initiation of palbociclib (C1D15), which then rose significantly with palbociclib washout. At C1D15, TK1 activity was below the detection limit (<20 DiviTum units per liter Du/L) in 92% of patients, indicating a profound effect of palbociclib. There was high concordance, at 89.8% (95% CI: 79.2% - 96.2%), between changes in serum TK1 and tumor Ki-67 in the same direction from C1D1 to C1D15 and from C1D15 to surgery time points. The sensitivity and specificity for the tumor Ki-67-based response by palbociclib-induced decrease in serum TK1 were 94.1% (95% CI 86.2% - 100%) and 84% (95% CI 69.6% -98.4%), respectively. The κ-statistic was 0.76 ( p  < 0.001) between TK1 and Ki-67, indicating substantial agreement.    Conclusions  Serum TK1 activity is a promising pharmacodynamic marker of palbociclib in ER+ breast cancer, and its value in predicting response to CDK4/6 inhibitors warrants further investigation.    Trial registration  ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01723774. Registered on 6 November 2012.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13058-017-0913-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

breast cancer research

Serum thymidine kinase 1 activity as a pharmacodynamic marker of cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibition in patients with early-stage breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant palbociclib