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Long-term complications and associated conditions of type 1 Gaucher Disease (GD) can include splenectomy, bone complications, pulmonary hypertension, Parkinson disease and malignancies. Enzyme replacement therapy (ERT) reverses cytopenia and reduces organomegaly. To study the effects of ERT on long-term complications and associated conditions, the course of Gaucher disease was modelled.  The cohort consisted of all diagnosed GD patients in the Netherlands. Mutually exclusive disease states were defined as ‘asymptomatic’, ‘signs/symptoms’, ‘recovery’, ‘splenectomy’, ‘bone complication’, ‘multiple complications’ and ‘malignancy’. A natural history (NH) cohort was delineated based upon historical data on Dutch patients before ERT was available. Cumulative incidence curves were composed for progression from each disease state to the next. Two scenarios were applied for the ERT cohort: time to complications was calculated from A. start of ERT; B. entering the previous disease state.  Median time for the development of signs and/or symptoms was 30.1 years (N = 73). In the NH cohort (N = 42), 9% had developed a bone complication after 10 years in the signs/symptoms phase, while 21% had undergone a splenectomy. In the ERT cohort (N = 29 (A), N = 28 (B)), 12% (A) or 4% (B) had developed a bone complication after 10 years in this phase and no patient was splenectomized. No patients in the NH cohort recovered, compared to 50% in the ERT cohort after 3.6 years (N = 28 (A)) or 22.4 years (N = 27 (B)) of treatment. Median time from a first to a second complication was 11 years in the NH cohort (N = 31), whereas 16 respectively 14 percent had developed a second complication after 10 years in the ERT cohort (N = 17, scenario A/B). Fourteen percent (scenario A/B) developed an associated malignancy after 10 years in the phase ‘multiple complications’ (N = 23). Associated malignancies occurred almost exclusively in advanced disease stages, therefore it is suggested that ERT reduces their incidence  Long-term ERT for GD can reduce the incidence of splenectomy and bone complications. As ERT prevents progression to more advanced stages of GD it will most likely result in a reduction of associated malignancies.

Modelling Gaucher disease progression: long-term enzyme replacement therapy reduces the incidence of splenectomy and bone complications