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Background  The introduction of enhanced recovery pathways has demonstrated both patient and organisational benefits. However, enhanced recovery pathways implemented for total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) vary between health-care organisations, as do their measures of success, particularly patient-related outcomes. Despite inpatient functional recovery being essential for safe and timely hospital discharge, there is currently no gold standard method for its assessment, and the research undertaken to establish prognostic factors is limited. This study aimed to identify prognostic factors and subsequently develop prognostic models for inpatient functional recovery following primary, unilateral THA and TKA; identify factors associated with acute length of stay; and assess the relationships between inpatient function and longer-term functional outcomes.    Methods  Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to determine prognostic factors for functional recovery (assessed using the modified Iowa Level of Assistance Scale on day 2 post-operatively) in a prospective cohort study of 354 patients following primary, unilateral THA or TKA.    Results  For the overall cohort and TKA group, significant prognostic factors included age, sex, pre-operative general health, pre-operative function, and use of general anaesthesia, local infiltration analgesia, and patient-controlled analgesia. In addition, arthroplasty site was a prognostic factor for the overall cohort, and surgery duration was prognostic for the TKA group. For the THA group, significant prognostic factors included pre-operative function, Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool score, and surgical approach. Several factors were associated with acute hospital length of stay. Inpatient function was positively correlated with functional outcomes assessed at 6 months post-operatively.    Conclusions  Prognostic models may facilitate the prediction of inpatient flow thus optimising organisational efficiency. Surgical prognostic factors warrant consideration as potential key elements in enhanced recovery pathways, associated with early post-operative functional recovery. Standardised measures of inpatient function serve to evaluate patient-centred outcomes and facilitate the benchmarking and improvement of enhanced recovery pathways.

Patient and surgical prognostic factors for inpatient functional recovery following THA and TKA: a prospective cohort study