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Aims  To identify sex specific trajectories of waist circumference (WC),triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) during adulthood and examine their associations with incident hypertension.    Methods  The cohort consisted of 5030 participants (2051 males) with at least 2 repeated measurement during a median of 12 years follow up. We identified trajectory groups using latent class growth mixture model, their association with hypertension was examined using multivariate Cox-regression analysis.    Results  We found 997 cases of hypertension (483 male). For both exposures, three distinct trajectory groups were identified in both genders. For WC, in women: low-increasing, 82.4%; high-stable, 13.4%; high-increasing, 4.2% and in men: stable, 94.6%; low-increasing, 3.6% and for high- increasing, 1.7%. For TG, in women: stable, 91.3%; decreasing, 5.9%; inverse U-shape, 2.8%; in men: stable, 89.7%; inverse U- shape, 6.2% and for decreasing, 4.1%.  Regarding WC, high stable and high-increasing trajectories were associated with hypertension in the multivariate model [(hazard ratio (HR) = 1.66 (95% CI 1.26–2.20) and 2.78(1.79–3.60), respectively]. Among men, this association was shown only for the low-increasing trajectory [2.76: 1.49–5.10]. For TG, among women decreasing and inverse U-shape trajectories were significantly associated with hypertension in the multivariate model [1.32:1.01–1.76] and [2.23:1.58–3.23, respectively].  We did not find any impact of increasing trajectories of FPG and HDL-C on incident hypertension. Considering TC, all individuals followed a stable trajectory.    Conclusion  WC dynamic changes in both gender and TG trajectory among women were significantly associated with incident hypertension.

journal of translational medicine

Sex specific trajectories of central adiposity, lipid indices, and glucose level with incident hypertension: 12 years Follow-up in Tehran lipid and glucose study