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Background  To investigate the influence of different risk factors on central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in the cervical region in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).    Methods  This retrospective study included 2586 PTC patients. Potential risk factors were identified by univariate analysis, and the relationships between these factors and CLNM were ascertained by multivariable analysis. A scoring system was constructed, and the optimal cut-off value was determined.    Results  On univariate analysis, sex, age, tumor diameter, multifocality, capsule invasion, vascular invasion, total number of lymph nodes in the central region, and serum thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) concentration were identified as potential risk factors for CLNM in the cervical region, whereas nerve invasion, thyroid-stimulating hormone concentration, and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) concentration were not. Multivariable analysis indicated that male sex, young age, large tumor diameter, multifocality, vascular invasion, a large number of central lymph nodes, and a low TPOAb concentration were significant risk factors. From these factors, a preoperative CLNM risk assessment scale was constructed for predicting CLNM in the cervical region for PTC patients.    Conclusion  Male sex, young age, large tumor diameter, multifocality, vascular invasion, a large number of central lymph nodes, and a low TPOAb concentration were positively correlated with CLNM in the cervical region in PTC patients. The preoperative CLNM risk assessment scale based on these risk factors is expected to offer accurate preoperative assessment of central lymph node status in PTC patients.

Risk factors for central lymph node metastasis in the cervical region in papillary thyroid carcinoma: a retrospective study