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Background  The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinicopathologic and ultrasonographic (US) characteristics and establish an effective scoring system for predicting central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC).    Methods  A total of 498 patients with PTMC who underwent total thyroidectomy or lobectomy with therapeutic central lymph node dissection (CLND) were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to find the independent predictors for CLNM based on clinicopathological and US characteristics. Using the standardized regression coefficient, a 10-point score system was constructed in line with these independent predictors. Then, the scoring system was evaluated for the diagnostic value in predicting CLNM.    Results  Tumor location (the lower polo), tumor size (>5 mm), extrathyroidal extension, margin (no well-defined), display of enlarged lymph node, and contact of >25 % with the adjacent capsule were independent predictors for CLNM. Verifying the scoring system, a cutoff value of 5 points was found to be the best prediction for CLNM, the sensitivity and specificity were 64.7 and 80.5 %, respectively, and the positive and negative predictive values were 77.3 and 69.0 %, respectively.    Conclusions  The points ≤ 5 could be considered as a low risk for CLNM, and the points > 5 could be identified as a high risk for CLNM. More advanced diagnostic approaches and prophylactic CLND are needed for patients with the points > 5.

A scoring system is an effective tool for predicting central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a case-control study