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Background  In Japan, the number of obstetrics facilities has steadily decreased and the selection and concentration of obstetrics facilities is progressing rapidly. Obstetrics services should be concentrated in fewer hospitals to improve quality of care and reduce the workload of obstetricians. However, the impact of this intensification of services on access to obstetrics hospitals is not known. We undertook a simulation to examine how the intensification of obstetrics services would affect access to hospitals based on a variety of scenarios, and the implications for health policy.    Methods  The female population aged between 15 and 49 living within a 30-min drive of an obstetrics hospital was calculated using a Geographic Information System for three possible intensification scenarios: Scenario 1 retained facilities with a higher volume of deliveries without considering the geographic boundaries of Medical Service Areas (MSAs, zones of healthcare administration and management); Scenario 2 prioritized retaining at least one hospital in each MSA and then retained higher delivery volume institutions, while Scenario 3 retained facilities to maximize population coverage using location-allocation modeling. We also assessed the impact of concentrating services in academic hospitals and specialist perinatal medical centers (PMCs) alone.    Results  In 2011, 95.0 % of women aged 15–49 years lived within a 30-min drive of one of 1075 obstetrics hospitals. This would fall to 82.7 % if obstetrics services were intensified into academic hospitals and general and regional PMCs. If 55.0 % of institutions provided obstetrics services, the coverage would be 87.6 % in Scenario 1, whereas intensification based on access would achieve over 90.5 % coverage in Scenario 2 and 93.9 % in Scenario 3.    Conclusions  Intensification of obstetrics facilities impairs access, but a greater caseload and better staffing have the potential advantages of better clinical outcomes and reduced costs. It is essential to consult residents of hospital catchment areas when reorganizing clinical services; a simulation is a useful means of informing these important discussions.

The effect of concentrating obstetrics services in fewer hospitals on patient access: a simulation