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Background  Malaria remains a heavy burden across sub-Saharan Africa where transmission is maintained by some of the world’s most efficient vectors. Indoor insecticide-based control measures have significantly reduced transmission, yet elimination remains a distant target. Knowing the relative abundance of the primary vector species can provide transmission models with much needed information to guide targeted control measures. Moreover, understanding how existing interventions are impacting on these relative abundances highlights where alternative control (e.g., larval source management) is needed.    Methods  Using the habitat suitability probabilities generated by predictive species distribution models combined with data collated from the literature, a multinomial generalized additive model was applied to produce relative abundance estimates for  Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles funestus  and  Anopheles gambiae/Anopheles coluzzii . Using pre- and post-intervention abundance data, estimates of the effect of indoor insecticide-based interventions on these relative abundances were made and are illustrated in post-intervention maps.    Results  Conditional effect plots and relative abundance maps illustrate the individual species’ predicted habitat suitability and how they interact when in sympatry.  Anopheles arabiensis  and  An. funestus  show an affinity in habitat preference at the expense of  An. gambiae / An. coluzzii,  whereas increasing habitat suitability for  An. gambiae / An. coluzzii  is conversely less suitable for  An. arabiensis  but has little effect on  An. funestus.  Indoor insecticide-based interventions had a negative impact on the relative abundance of  An. funestus,  and a lesser effect on  An. arabiensis . Indoor residual spraying had the greatest impact on the relative abundance of  An. funestus,  and a lesser effect on  An. gambiae / An. coluzzii . Insecticide-treated bed nets reduced the relative abundance of both species equally. These results do not indicate changes in the absolute abundance of these species, which may be reduced for all species overall.    Conclusions  The maps presented here highlight the interactions between the primary vector species in sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrate that  An. funestus  is more susceptible to certain indoor-based insecticide interventions than  An. gambiae / An. coluzzii , which in turn, is more susceptible than  An. arabiensis . This may provide  An. arabiensis  with a competitive advantage where it is found in sympatry with other more endophilic vectors, and potentially increase the need for outdoor-based vector interventions to deal with any residual transmission barring the way to malaria elimination.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1187-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

malaria journal

Modelling the relative abundance of the primary African vectors of malaria before and after the implementation of indoor, insecticide-based vector control