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Background  Risk stratification of patients with prediabetes is an unmet clinical need. Here, we examine the utility of subclinical myocardial necrosis assessed by high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in predicting health outcomes in stable subjects with prediabetes.    Methods  hs-cTnT was analyzed by a high-sensitivity assay (Roche 5th generation) in 2631 stable subjects with prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7–6.4% or fasting glucose 100–125 mg/dL without previous diagnosis of diabetes or glucose-lowering therapy) who underwent elective coronary angiography for cardiac evaluation, and followed for major adverse cardiac events (MACE; death, myocardial infarction, stroke) over 3 years and all-cause mortality over 5 years.    Results  In our study cohort, hs-cTnT was highly prevalent with a median level of 13 ng/L (interquartile range 8.2–21.6 ng/L). Hs-cTnT was independently associated with incident MACE at 3 years (Q4 vs. Q1 adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.42 [95% CI 1.69–3.46], P < 0.001) and 5-year mortality (adjusted HR 3.8 [95% CI 2.55–5.67], P < 0.001). This association remained significant in all subsets after adjustment for traditional risk factors and multiple factors known to increase hs-cTnT levels. Moreover, hs-cTnT independently predicted event risk in primary prevention subjects (n = 557, HR 5.46 [95% CI 1.50–19.89), p < 0.01) for MACE; HR 9.53 [95% CI 2.08–43.73] for all-cause mortality) and secondary prevention subjects (n = 2074, HR 1.86 [95% CI 1.31–2.66], P < 0.001 for MACE; and 2.7 [95% CI 1.79–4.08), P < 0.001 for all-cause mortality).    Conclusions  In stable prediabetic subjects, the presence of subclinical myocardial necrosis as detected by hs-cTnT portends heightened long-term adverse cardiovascular event risk. Hs-cTnT levels may help to stratify risk and improve clinical decision making in patients with prediabetes.   Trial registration  ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00590200.    Supplementary Information  The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-021-01365-9.

Prognostic value of subclinical myocardial necrosis using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in patients with prediabetes