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Background  Despite the growing evidence base supporting intensive lifestyle and medical treatments for severe obesity, patient engagement in specialist obesity services is difficult to achieve and poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we aimed to develop a model for predicting non-completion of a specialist multidisciplinary service for clinically severe obesity, termed the Metabolic Rehabilitation Programme (MRP).    Method  Using a case-control study design in a public hospital setting, we extracted data from medical records for all eligible patients with a body mass index (BMI) of ≥35 kg/m 2  with either type 2 diabetes or fatty liver disease referred to the MRP from 2010 through 2015. Non-completion status (case definition) was coded for patients whom started but dropped-out of the MRP within 12 months. Using multivariable logistic regression, we tested the following baseline predictors hypothesised in previous research: age, gender, BMI, waist circumference, residential distance from the clinic, blood pressure, obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), current continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy, current depression/anxiety, diabetes status, and medications. We used receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve to test the performance of models.    Results  Out of the 219 eligible patient records, 78 (35.6%) non-completion cases were identified. Significant differences between non-completers versus completers were: age (47.1 versus 54.5 years,  p  < 0.001); residential distance from the clinic (21.8 versus 17.1 km,  p  = 0.018); obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) (42.9% versus 56.7%,  p  = 0.050) and CPAP therapy (11.7% versus 28.4%,  p  = 0.005). The probability of non-completion could be independently associated with age, residential distance, and either OSA or CPAP. There was no statistically significant difference in performance between the alternate models (69.5% versus 66.4%,  p  = 0.57).    Conclusions  Non-completion of intensive specialist obesity management services is most common among younger patients, with fewer complex care needs, and those living further away from the clinic. Clinicians should be aware of these potential risk factors for dropping out early when managing outpatients with severe obesity, whereas policy makers might consider strategies for increasing access to specialist obesity management services.

A predictive model for non-completion of an intensive specialist obesity service in a public hospital: a case-control study