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Background  Published literature suggests that early treatment with natalizumab (“escalation strategy”) is more effective than switch within the same class of immunomodulators (interferons/glatiramer acetate, “switching strategy”) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients who failed first-line self-injectable disease-modifying treatment (DMT). The present analysis aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness profile of escalation strategy vs. switching strategy, adopting the Italian societal perspective.    Methods  A lifetime horizon Markov model was developed to compare early escalation to natalizumab vs. switching among immunomodulators, followed by subsequent escalation to natalizumab. The two compared treatment algorithms were: a) early escalation until progression to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) = 7.0 vs. b) switching until EDSS = 4.0, followed by escalation until EDSS = 7.0. The model analyzed social costs, quality-adjusted survival and effects of therapies in prolonging time without disability progression and burden of relapses. Clinical data were mainly extracted from a published observational study.    Results  Lifetime costs of early escalation to natalizumab and switching among immunomodulators amounted to €699,700 and €718,600 per patient, respectively. Early escalation was associated with prolonged quality-adjusted survival (11.19 vs. 9.67 QALYs, + 15.8%). A slight overall survival increase was also observed (20.10 vs. 19.67 life years). Both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of findings.    Conclusions  Adopting the Italian social perspective, early escalation to natalizumab is dominant vs. switching among immunomodulators, in RRMS patients who do not respond adequately to conventional immunomodulators.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4264-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of escalating to natalizumab or switching among immunomodulators in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Italy