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Background  Given the expected increase in those entering retirement, the number of practising physicians is predicted to decrease. Conversely, the number of physicians needed is set to increase, due to higher demands resulting from the increasing average age of the German population. This may cause a deficit in the availability and accessibility of medical care for the population in Germany, as well as in other countries.  As such, there needs to be a specific focus on the next generation of physicians. Will they fill the gap in those medical specialties where it is most needed? This study aims to investigate (a) preferences for medical specialties over time and (b) the reasoning behind these preferences among students.    Methods  Over three subsequent years, all medical students from the Jena Faculty of Medicine were repeatedly invited to participate in an online survey. The questionnaire consisted of three parts to explore the students’ (1) preferred postgraduate specialty, (2) the reasons for their decision and (3) socio-demographic data.  Data analysis was performed using Fisher’s exact tests and logistic regression analysis.    Results  The number of students completing the questionnaire in a given year ranged from 180 to 320, resulting in a total number of 720 completed questionnaires. Between 40 and 50% of the students preferred internal medicine as postgraduate specialty. About 25% of the students were interested in a surgical specialty. Diagnostics and psychiatric medical fields were preferred by about 10% of all students for each field in each year of the survey. A large percentage (about 18%) of the students remained undecided. The factors influencing the students’ specialty preferences were most frequently reconciliation of work and family life, career goals as well as predicted workload. The factors depended on the preferred medical specialty.    Conclusion  The influencing factors should be taken into account for recruiting prospective residents. Doing so could increase the chance to attract the number of physicians needed to ensure adequate medical care in the field of interest, according to the growing health needs of the population.

Specialty preferences and influencing factors: a repeated cross-sectional survey of first- to sixth-year medical students in Jena, Germany