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Background  Evaluation of the predictive validity of selected sociodemographic factors and admission criteria for Master’s studies in Public Health at the Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical University of Warsaw (MUW).    Methods  For the evaluation purposes recruitment data and learning results of students enrolled between 2008 and 2012 were used ( N  = 605, average age 22.9 ± 3.01). The predictive analysis was performed using the multiple linear regression method. In the proposed regression model 12 predictors were selected, including: sex, age, professional degree (BA), the Bachelor’s studies grade point average (GPA), total score of the preliminary examination broken down into five thematic areas. Depending on the tested model, one of two dependent variables was used: first-year GPA or cumulative GPA in the Master program.    Results  The regression model based on the result variable of Master’s GPA program was better matched to data in comparison to the model based on the first year GPA (adjusted R 2  0.413 versus 0.476 respectively). The Bachelor’s studies GPA and each of the five subtests comprising the test entrance exam were significant predictors of success achieved by a student both after the first year and at the end of the course of studies.    Conclusions  Criteria of admissions with total score of MCQs exam and Bachelor’s studies GPA can be successfully used for selection of the candidates for Master’s degree studies in Public Health. The high predictive validity of the recruitment system confirms the validity of the adopted admission policy at MUW.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s12909-017-1007-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evidence-based selection process to the Master of Public Health program at Medical University