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Background  The prevalence of metabolic syndrome continues to rise sharply worldwide, seriously threatening people’s health. The optimal model can be used to identify people at high risk of metabolic syndrome as early as possible, to predict their risk, and to persuade them to change their adverse lifestyle so as to slow down and reduce the incidence of metabolic syndrome.    Methods  Design existing circumstances research. A total of 1468 workers from an oil company who participated in occupational health physical examination from April 2017 to October 2018 were included in this study. We established the Logistic regression model, the random forest model and the convolutional neural network model, and compared the prediction performance of the models according to the F1 score, sensitivity, accuracy and other indicators of the three models.    Results  The results showed that the accuracy of the three models was 82.49,95.98 and 92.03%, the sensitivity was 87.94,95.52 and 90.59%, the specificity was 74.54, 96.65 and 94.14%, the F1 score was 0.86,0.97 and 0.93, and the area under ROC curve was 0.88,0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The Brier score of the three models was 0.15, 0.08 and 0.12, Observed-expected ratio was 0.83, 0.97 and 1.13, and the Integrated Calibration Index was 0.075,0.073 and 0.074, respectively, and explained how the random forest model was used for individual disease risk score.    Conclusions  The study showed that the prediction performance of random forest model is better than other models, and the model has higher application value, which can better predict the risk of metabolic syndrome in oil workers, and provide corresponding theoretical basis for the health management of oil workers.    Supplementary Information  The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-020-09921-w.

Development and internal validation of risk prediction model of metabolic syndrome in oil workers