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Background  CD4 cell and viral load count are highly correlated surrogate markers of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression. In modelling the progression of HIV, previous studies mostly dealt with either CD4 cell counts or viral load alone. In this work, both biomarkers are in included one model, in order to study possible factors that affect the intensities of immune deterioration, immune recovery and state-specific duration of HIV-infected women.    Methods  The data is from an ongoing prospective cohort study conducted among antiretroviral treatment (ART) naïve HIV-infected women in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants were enrolled in the acute HIV infection phase, then followed-up during chronic infection up to ART initiation. Full-parametric and semi-parametric Markov models were applied. Furthermore, the effect of the inclusion and exclusion viral load in the model was assessed.    Results  Inclusion of a viral load component improves the efficiency of the model. The analysis results showed that patients who reported a stable sexual partner, having a higher educational level, higher physical health score and having a high mononuclear component score are more likely to spend more time in a good HIV state (particularly normal disease state). Patients with TB co-infection, with  anemia,  having a high liver abnormality score and patients who reported many sexual partners, had a significant increase in the intensities of immunological deterioration transitions. On the other hand, having high weight, higher education level, higher quality of life score, having high RBC parameters, high granulocyte component scores and high mononuclear component scores, significantly increased the intensities of immunological recovery transitions.    Conclusion  Inclusion of both CD4 cell count based disease progression states and viral load, in the time-homogeneous Markov model, assisted in modeling the complete disease progression of HIV/AIDS. Higher quality of life (QoL) domain scores, good clinical characteristics, stable sexual partner and higher educational level were found to be predictive factors for transition and length of stay in sequential adversity of HIV/AIDS.

bmc public health

Modelling immune deterioration, immune recovery and state-specific duration of HIV-infected women with viral load adjustment: using parametric multistate model