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Background  Describing the natural course of neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) is essential in discussing prognosis and treatment options with patients and to support cost-effectiveness studies.    Methods  First, we performed a literature search in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane. We included randomized clinical trials and prospective observational studies reporting visual acuity (VA) in non-treated patients, 24 studies in total. We integrated VA data using best fit on Lineweaver-Burke plots and modelled with non-linear regression using reciprocal terms. Second, we performed a quality-of-life (QoL) study in nAMD patients. We measured VA with Radner reading charts and QoL with the Health Utilities Index issue 3 (HUI-3) questionnaire in 184 participants. We studied the relation VA-QoL with linear regression. Third, with Monte Carlo simulation, we integrated the VA model from the literature review and the relation VA-QoL from the QoL study.    Results  Visual acuity was 0.4 and 0.07 after 5 years in the better-seeing, and worse-seeing eye, respectively. After 4.3 years, VA was <0.5 in the better-seeing eye; <0.3 after 7 years; 0.05 after 17 years. QoL score decreased from 0.6 to 0.45 after 10 years.    Conclusions  The natural course of nAMD in both eyes needs to be considered when informing patients. Visual acuity in the best eye decreases to below 0.5 in 4.3 years. This affects QoL significantly.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12886-017-0514-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

bmc ophthalmology

Tracing the natural course of visual acuity and quality of life in neovascular age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and quality of life study