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Background  To develop and validate multivariate models integrating endoscopic biopsy, tumor markers, and CT findings based on late arterial phase (LAP) to predict serosal invasion in gastric cancer (GC).    Methods  The preoperative differentiation degree, tumor markers, CT morphological characteristics, and CT value-related and texture parameters of 154 patients with GC were analyzed retrospectively. Multivariate models based on regression analysis and machine learning algorithms were performed to improve the diagnostic efficacy.    Results  The differentiation degree, carbohydrate antigen (CA) 199, CA724, CA242, and multiple CT findings based on LAP differed significantly between T1–3 and T4 GCs in the primary cohort (all  P  < 0.05). Multivariate models based on regression analysis and random forest achieved AUCs of 0.849 and 0.865 in the primary cohort, respectively.    Conclusion  We developed and validated multivariate models integrating endoscopic biopsy, tumor markers, CT morphological characteristics, and CT value-related and texture parameters to predict serosal invasion in GCs and achieved favorable performance.    Supplementary Information  The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08672-0.

bmc cancer

Prediction of serosal invasion in gastric cancer: development and validation of multivariate models integrating preoperative clinicopathological features and radiographic findings based on late arterial phase CT images