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Background  The prognostic role of serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) has been found in several kinds of solid malignant tumor, but has never been extensively discussed in pancreatic cancer, especially through the application of dynamic survival model which incorporates the varying nature of ALP measurements.    Methods  We conducted a retrospective study which successfully collected 551 histopathologically confirmed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) patients from a cancer specialized hospital in southwest China. The association between variant ALP which measured during the whole survival period and the overall survival (OS) of PDAC patients was evaluated by using dynamic Anderson-Gill (AG) model. Exhaustive sensitivity analysis was performed by adopting continuous cut-offs of ALP.    Results  After adjusted for possible confounding of serum albumin, total bilirubin and leukocyte counts, AG model revealed that, serum ALP during the survival period was nonlinearly associated with the OS of PDAC: for resected patients, compared with those whose ALP results ranged within the first quartile (<P 25 ), patients whose ALP measurements belonged to the second (P 25 -P 50 ), the third (P 50 -P 75 ), and the forth (>P 75 ) quartiles were observed 1.14 (95% CI: 0.29–4.56), 3.93 (95% CI: 1.23–12.60), 3.87 (95% CI: 1.32–11.36) folds of death hazard; whereas in un-resected PDAC patients, the hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.15 (95% CI: 0.79–1.68), 1.92 (95% CI: 1.32–2.78), and 1.97 (95% CI: 1.30–2.98), respectively. Sensitivity analysis revealed that, for both resected and un-resected patients, the results of AG model were robust with regard to various cut-offs of ALP, and an increased ALP was in general associated with significantly increased hazard of death.    Conclusion  Serum ALP during the survival period was significantly associated with the OS of PDAC patients, especially for resected early stage PDAC patients. Future studies with expanded sample size and refined prospective design should be implemented to corroborate our major findings. Besides, the underlying mechanism for this possible hazardous role of ALP should also be investigated.

Dynamic serum alkaline phosphatase is an indicator of overall survival in pancreatic cancer