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Backgrounds  The aim of this study is to investigate the risk factors for the cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).    Methods  The clinicopathological data from the 966 PTC patients who underwent thyroid operation between January 2013 and December 2015 in the general surgery department of Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University were collected. The risk factors of predicting cervical lymph node metastasis were analyzed.    Results  Male, age ≤ 45 years old, tumor size> 1.0 cm, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), US features as microcalcification, were independent risk factors for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) ( P  < 0.05). Only CLNM was independent risk factors for lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) ( P  < 0.05). The ROC curve showed that the cutoff value of the number of CLNM for predicting lateral lymph node metastasis was defined as 2.5 (Sensitivity = 0.535, Specificity = 0.722, AUC = 0.669,  P  < 0.05). When the number of CLNM > 3, OR value was significantly higher, suggesting that the risk of LLNM increased significantly. The incidence of LLNM in level III (66.8%) and level IV (67.3%) were significantly higher than level II (42.2%) and level V (21.3%) ( P  < 0.05). The incidence of LLNM and skip metastasis in tumor located in the upper 1/3 of the lobe was the highest ( P  < 0.05).    Conclusions  Prophylactic central lymph node dissection should be performed in patients with risk factors as male, age ≤ 45 years old, tumor size> 1.0 cm, ETE and US features as microcalcification. Lateral lymph node dissection (LLND) should be more actively performed in patients with the number of CLNM> 3. Extent of LLND should include levels II, III, IV and V. Tumor located in the upper 1/3 of the lobe was vulnerable for LLNM and skip metastasis, so lymph node in lateral compartment should be noticed when lymph node status was preoperatively evaluated by imaging examination.

Risk factor analysis for predicting cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma: a study of 966 patients