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Background  Lanreotide depot/autogel antitumor activity in intestinal/pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) was demonstrated in the phase-3 CLARINET study (NCT00353496), based on significantly prolonged progression-free survival (PFS) versus placebo.    Methods  During CLARINET, patients with metastatic intestinal/pancreatic NETs received lanreotide depot/autogel 120 mg or placebo every 4 weeks for 96 weeks. Imaging data (response evaluation criteria in solid tumors [RECIST] v1.0, centrally reviewed) were re-evaluated in this post hoc analysis of tumor growth rate (TGR) in NETs. TGR (%/month) was calculated from two imaging scans during relevant periods: pre-treatment (TGR 0 ); 12–24 weeks before randomization versus baseline; each treatment visit versus baseline (TGR Tx-0 ); between consecutive treatment visits (TGR Tx-Tx ). To assess TGR as a measure of prognosis, PFS was compared for TGR 0  subgroups stratified by optimum TGR 0  cut-off; a multivariate analysis was conducted to identify prognostic factors for PFS.    Results  TGR 0  revealed tumors growing during pre-treatment (median [interquartile range] TGR 0 : lanreotide 2.1%/month [0.2; 6.1]; placebo 2.7%/month [0.15; 6.8]), contrary to RECIST status. TGR was significantly reduced by 12 weeks with lanreotide versus placebo (difference in least-square mean TGR 0–12  of − 2.9 [− 5.1, − 0.8],  p  = 0.008), a difference that was maintained at most subsequent visits. TGR 0  > 4%/month had greater risk of progression/death than ≤4%/month (hazard ratio 4.1; [95% CI 2.5–6.5];  p  < 0.001); multivariate analysis revealed lanreotide treatment, progression at baseline, TGR 0 , hepatic tumor load, and primary tumor type were independently associated with PFS.    Conclusions  TGR provides valuable information on tumor activity and prognosis in patients with metastatic intestinal/pancreatic NETs, and identifies early lanreotide depot/autogel antitumor activity.    Trial registration  Retrospective registration, 18 July 2006; EudraCT: 2005–004904-35; ClinicalTrials.gov:  NCT00353496 .    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-5257-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Tumor growth rate as a metric of progression, response, and prognosis in pancreatic and intestinal neuroendocrine tumors