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Background  Almost 40% of stroke patients have a poor outcome at 3 months after the index event. Predictors for stroke outcome in the early acute phase may help to tailor stroke treatment. Infection and inflammation are considered to influence stroke outcome.    Methods  In a prospective multicenter study in Germany and Spain, including 486 patients with acute ischemic stroke, we used multivariable regression analysis to investigate the association of poor outcome with monocytic HLA-DR (mHLA-DR) expression, interleukin 6 (IL-6), interleukin 10 (IL-10), tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-alpha) and lipopolysaccharide-binding protein (LBP) as markers for immunodepression, inflammation and infection. Outcome was assessed at 3 months after stroke via a structured telephone interview using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). Poor outcome was defined as a mRS score of 3 or higher which included death. Furthermore, a time-to-event analysis for death within 3 months was performed.    Results  Three-month outcome data was available for 391 patients. Female sex, older age, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) and higher National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score as well as lower mHLA-DR levels, higher IL-6 and LBP-levels at day 1 were associated with poor outcome at 3 months in bivariate analysis. Furthermore, multivariable analysis revealed that lower mHLA-DR expression was associated with poor outcome.  Female sex, older age, atrial fibrillation, SAP, higher NIHSS score, lower mHLA-DR expression and higher IL-6 levels were associated with shorter survival time in bivariate analysis. In multivariable analysis, SAP and higher IL-6 levels on day 1 were associated with shorter survival time.    Conclusions  SAP, lower mHLA-DR-expression and higher IL-6 levels on day one are associated with poor outcome and shorter survival time at 3 months after stroke onset.    Trial registration  www.clinicaltrials.gov,  NCT01079728 , March 3, 2010.

Biomarkers of immune capacity, infection and inflammation are associated with poor outcome and mortality after stroke - the PREDICT study