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Background We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model for predicting CKD after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Methods The retrospective data of 399 patients who underwent transplantation and were followed in our centre were collected. They were randomly assigned to the training set ( n  = 293) and validation set ( n  = 106). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed in the training set to identify predictors of CKD. According to the Cox regression analysis results, a nomogram model was developed and validated. The renal function of recipients was monitored, and the long-term survival prognosis was assessed. Results The incidence of CKD at 5 years after OLT was 25.6%. Cox regression analysis identified several predictors of post-OLT CKD, including recipient age at surgery (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.006-1.068;  p  = 0.018), female sex (HR 2.867, 95% CI 1.709-4.810;  p    0.05). Renal function declined slowly year by year, and there were significant differences between patients divided by these predictors. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the survival prognosis of recipients decreased significantly with the progression of renal function. Conclusions With excellent predictive abilities, the nomogram may be a simple and reliable tool to identify patients at high risk for CKD and poor long-term prognosis after OLT.

Prediction of chronic kidney disease after orthotopic liver transplantation: development and validation of a nomogram model