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Background   Mycobacterium avium  complex lung disease (MAC-LD) can deteriorate rapidly to become fatal. Reported poor prognostic factors include radiographic findings, undernutrition, anemia and high inflammation test values. However, the association of these prognostic factors with the pathophysiology of the disease remains unknown. We aimed to clarify the pathophysiology of MAC-LD and develop a new biomarker that reflects the immune response to the disease.    Methods  We performed the cytokine panel analyses of serum from patients with MAC-LD and compared each cytokine level with clinically negative prognostic factors (radiographic disease type, body mass index, albumin, C-reactive protein and hemoglobin) and high-resolution CT scores.    Results  We analyzed 27 patients with MAC-LD, 6 with the fibrocavitary form and 21 with the nodular bronchiectatic form on high-resolution CT. Serum CXC motif ligand 10 (CXCL10) concentration was significantly elevated in patients with the fibrocavitary form ( p  = 0.008). CXCL10 levels correlated with body mass index (r = − 0.60,  p  = 0.0008), serum albumin concentration (r = − 0.45,  p  = 0.016) and high-resolution CT scores (r = 0.61,  p  = 0.0006). Among 14 patients initially untreated, antibiotic therapy was initiated for five during the study period. CXCL10 concentration was significantly higher in these patients ( p  = 0.046), and receiver operating characteristic analysis for CXCL10 concentration on treatment initiation produced an area under the curve of 0.844, with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 66.7%, and cut-off value of 366.5 pg/mL.    Conclusion  We revealed cytokine profiles in patients with MAC-LD. Serum CXCL10 levels probably reflect the severity of MAC-LD. Our findings suggest that CXCL10 concentration may be a promising biomarker for managing treatment for patients with MAC disease of the lung.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3888-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Multiplex cytokine analysis in Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease: relationship between CXCL10 and poor prognostic factors