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Background  This study aimed to estimate whether metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components could be used to predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a longitudinal analysis in a rural elderly Chinese population.    Method  At baseline during 2012–2013, a total of 2486 elderly from rural Chinese were enrolled and were followed up during 2015–2017. Stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) were included in CVD and were diagnosed by clinicians. The National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III), the American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (AHA/NHLBI) and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria were used to define MetS separately.    Result  Hazard ratios adjusting for CHD, stroke and CVD in those with MetS using the NCEP ATP III criteria in females were 1.27 (95 % CI 0.73, 2.21), 1.54 (95 % CI 0.99, 2.40) and 1.45 (95 % CI 1.00, 2.10), respectively; 1.33 (95 % CI 0.77, 2.32), 1.44 (95 % CI 0.92, 2.25) and 1.36 (95 % CI 0.94, 1.97), respectively, with the AHA/NHLBI criteria; and 1.10 (95 % CI 0.89,1.36), 1.62 (95 % CI 1.03, 2.55) and 1.36 (95 % CI 0.93, 1.97), respectively, with the IDF criteria. Additionally, abdominal obesity using the AHA/NHLBI criteria was significantly associated with the incidence of stroke (HR: 1.60; 95 % CI 1.01, 2.52). However, among rural elderly males, neither MetS nor its components predicted new-onset CVD.    Conclusions  MetS is correlated with high incidence of CVD among rural elderly female, and only using the NCEP ATP III criteria to define MetS could make the incidence of CVD obvious difference. In order to reduce rural elderly CVD, effective measures to prevent, diagnose, and treat MetS should be enacted in a timely manner, especially among females.

Gender discrepancy in the predictive effect of metabolic syndrome and its components on newly onset cardiovascular disease in elderly from rural China