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Background  This study aimed to prospectively analyze the risk factors for new falls and fragility fractures in self-caring elderly patients and to find suitable evaluation tools for community screening and follow-up interventions.  Methods:  A total of 300 participants (187 male and 113 female), aged 80 or above and capable of caring for themselves, were enrolled in this study and observed for a period of 12 months. Their medical histories were collected, various indicators were measured, and the risk factors for new falls and fragility fractures were analyzed.    Results  A total of 290 participants were included in the statistical analysis. Eighty-seven participants (30%) had new falls. The incidence was negatively correlated with the activities of daily living (ADL, represented by the Barthel Index) score ( P =0.008) but was positively correlated with the timed up-and-go (TUG) test score> 12 s ( P =0.021). The results also revealed that 33 fragility fractures occurred in 29 patients (10.0%), which was positively correlated with new falls ( P =0.000). New fragility fractures were negatively correlated with the bone mineral density (BMD) of the lumbar vertebrae ( P =0.012) and walking speed ( P =0.000).    Conclusion  TUG, walking speed, the ADL score, and the fall risk assessment scale can simply and effectively assess the risk of new falls and fragility fractures in the elderly population, and their use should be widely implemented in the community.

A prospective cohort study of the risk factors for new falls and fragility fractures in self-caring elderly patients aged 80 years and over