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Background: Influenza A/H3N2 has been circulating in humans since 1968,causing considerable morbidity and mortality. Although H3N2 incidence is highlyseasonal, how such seasonality contributes to global phylogeographic migrationdynamics has not yet been established.  Results: Incorporating seasonally varying migration rates improves themodeling of migration. In our global model, windows of increased immigrationmap to the seasonal timing of epidemic spread, while windows of increasedemigration map to epidemic decline. Seasonal patterns also correlate with theprobability that local lineages go extinct and fail to contribute to long termviral evolution, as measured through the trunk of the phylogeny. However, thefraction of the trunk in each community was found to be better determined byits overall human population size  Conclusions: Seasonal migration and rapid turnover within regions issustained by the invasion of 'fertile epidemic grounds' at the end of olderepidemics. Thus, the current emphasis on connectivity, including air-travel,should be complemented with a better understanding of the conditions and timingrequired for successful establishment.Models which account for migrationseasonality will improve our understanding of the seasonal drivers ofinfluenza,enhance epidemiological predictions, and ameliorate vaccine updatingby identifying strains that not only escape immunity but also have the seasonalopportunity to establish and spread. Further work is also needed on additionalconditions that contribute to the persistence and long term evolution ofinfluenza within the human population,such as spatial heterogeneity withrespect to climate and seasonality

Seasonality in the migration and establishment of H3N2 Influenza lineages with epidemic growth and decline