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Background  Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common subtype of renal carcinoma and patients at advanced stage showed poor survival rate. Despite microRNAs (miRNAs) are used as potential biomarkers in many cancers, miRNA biomarkers for predicting the tumor stage of ccRCC are still limitedly identified. Therefore, we proposed a new integrated machine learning (ML) strategy to identify a novel miRNA signature related to tumor stage and prognosis of ccRCC patients using miRNA expression profiles. A multivariate Cox regression model with three hybrid penalties including Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), Adaptive lasso and Elastic net algorithms was used to screen relevant prognostic related miRNAs. The best subset regression (BSR) model was used to identify optimal prognostic model. Five ML algorithms were used to develop stage classification models. The biological significance of the miRNA signature was analyzed by utilizing DIANA-mirPath.    Results  A four-miRNA signature associated with survival was identified and the expression of this signature was strongly correlated with high risk patients. The high risk patients had unfavorable overall survival compared with the low risk group (HR = 4.523,  P -value = 2.86e−08). Univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed independent and translational value of this predictive model. A combined ML algorithm identified six miRNA signatures for cancer staging prediction. After using the data balancing algorithm SMOTE, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm achieved the best classification performance (accuracy = 0.923, sensitivity = 0.927, specificity = 0.919, MCC = 0.843) when compared with other classifiers. Furthermore, enrichment analysis indicated that the identified miRNA signature involved in cancer-associated pathways.    Conclusions  A novel miRNA classification model using the identified prognostic and tumor stage associated miRNA signature will be useful for risk and stage stratification for clinical practice, and the identified miRNA signature can provide promising insight to understand the progression mechanism of ccRCC.    Supplementary Information  The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12859-021-04189-2.

A novel miRNA-based classification model of risks and stages for clear cell renal cell carcinoma patients