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Background Humans and wildlife are continuously exposed to chemical mixtures. These mixtures vary in composition but typically contain hundreds of micropollutants at low concentrations. As it is not feasible to measure the toxicity of all possibly occurring mixtures, there is a need to predict mixture toxicity. Two models, Concentration Addition (CA) and Independent Action (IA), have been applied to estimate mixture toxicity. Here, we compared measured with predicted toxicity of nine mixtures designed from 15 environmentally relevant substances in zebrafish embryos to investigate the usability of these models for predicting phenotypic effects in a whole organism short term acute assay. Results In total, we compared 177 toxicity values derived from 31 exposure scenarios with their predicted counterparts. Our results show that mixture toxicity was either correctly estimated (86%) by the prediction window , the concentration-effect space that is spanned between both models, or was underestimated with both models (14%). The CA model correctly predicted the measured mixture toxicity in 100% of cases when a prediction deviation factor of 2.5 was allowed. However, prediction accuracy of mixture toxicity prediction was dependent on exposure duration and mixture potency. The CA model showed highest prediction quality for long-term exposure with highly potent mixtures, respectively, whereas IA proved to be more accurate for short-term exposure with less potent mixtures. Obtained mixture concentration–response curves were steep and indicated the occurrence of remarkable combined effects as mixture constituents were applied at concentrations below their respective individual effect threshold in 90% of all investigated cases. Conclusions Experimental factors, such as exposure duration or mixture potency, influence the prediction accuracy of both inspected models. The CA model showed highest prediction accuracy even for a set of diverse mixtures and various exposure conditions. However, the prediction window served as the most robust predicator to estimate mixture toxicity. Overall, our results demonstrate the importance of considering mixture toxicity in risk assessment schemes and give guidance for future experiment design regarding mixture toxicity investigations.

Mixture toxicity analysis in zebrafish embryo: a time and concentration resolved study on mixture effect predictivity