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The survival of patients admitted to an emergency department is determined by the severity of acute illness and the quality of care provided. The high number and the wide spectrum of severity of illness of admitted patients make an immediate assessment of all patients unrealistic. The aim of this study is to evaluate a scoring system based on readily available physiological parameters immediately after admission to an emergency department (ED) for the purpose of identification of at-risk patients.    Methods  This prospective observational cohort study includes 4,388 consecutive adult patients admitted via the ED of a 960-bed tertiary referral hospital over a period of six months. Occurrence of each of seven potential vital sign abnormalities (threat to airway, abnormal respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, low Glasgow Coma Scale and seizures) was collected and added up to generate the vital sign score (VSS). VSS initial  was defined as the VSS in the first 15 minutes after admission, VSS max  as the maximum VSS throughout the stay in ED. Occurrence of single vital sign abnormalities in the first 15 minutes and VSS initial  and VSS max  were evaluated as potential predictors of hospital mortality.    Results  Logistic regression analysis identified all evaluated single vital sign abnormalities except seizures and abnormal respiratory rate to be independent predictors of hospital mortality. Increasing VSS initial  and VSS max  were significantly correlated to hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) 2.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.50 to 3.14,  P  < 0.0001 for VSS initial ; OR 2.36, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.60,  P  < 0.0001 for VSS max ). The predictive power of VSS was highest if collected in the first 15 minutes after ED admission (log rank Chi-square 468.1,  P  < 0.0001 for VSS initial ;,log rank Chi square 361.5,  P  < 0.0001 for VSS max ).    Conclusions  Vital sign abnormalities and VSS collected in the first minutes after ED admission can identify patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Risk assessment in the first fifteen minutes: a prospective cohort study of a simple physiological scoring system in the emergency department