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Background Aspirin reduces the absolute risk of death or dependence following an acute ischaemic stroke. An associated increase in risk of haemorrhage may cause considerable harm. We hypothesised that patients at a high predicted risk of further thrombosis or a low risk of haemorrhage would experience greater absolute benefit from aspirin. In addition we explored the assumption that absolute benefit increases with baseline risk.

Predicting risks and benefits of treatment with aspirin in the acute stage of ischaemic stroke: an analysis of 3 large randomised controlled trials