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Methods The potential market size and value of a hypothetical HIV1 vaccine effective against HIV-1 clades A, B and C was assessed across five different potential product profiles using an Excel-based spreadsheet model. Vaccine efficacy (prevention of acquisition and/or decrease in virus load), disease burden, clade distribution, vaccine price, market segment, vaccine delivery infrastructure, and HIV screening capabilities were taken into account. It was assumed that high disease burden countries (HDBC) where HIV prevalence rates are >1% would routinely vaccinate adolescents, whereas low disease burden countries (LDBC) with HIV prevalence rates < 1% would routinely vaccinate high-risk groups only. Routine vaccination and one-time catch-up campaigns were assessed.

P15-09. The potential global market size and public health value of hypothetical HIV-1 preventive vaccines with different levels of efficacy