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Background  Metabolic syndrome (MetS) management programs conventionally focus on the adults having MetS. However, risk assessment for MetS development is also important for many adults potentially at risk but do not yet fulfill MetS criteria at screening. Therefore, we conducted this follow-up study to explore whether initial screening records can be efficiently applied on the prediction of the MetS occurrence in healthy middle-aged employees.    Methods  Utilizing health examination data, a five-year follow-up observational study was conducted for 1384 middle-aged Taiwanese employees not fulfilling MetS criteria. Data analyzed included: gender, age, MetS components, uric acid, insulin, liver enzymes, sonographic fatty liver, hepatovirus infections and lifestyle factors. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of risk for MetS development. The synergistic index (SI) values and their confidence intervals of risk factor combinations were calculated; and were used to estimate the interacting effects of coupling MetS components on MetS development.    Results  Within five years, 13% (175 out of 1384) participants fulfilled MetS criteria. The ORs for MetS development among adults initially having one or two MetS components were 2.8 and 7.3, respectively (both p < 0.01), versus the adults having zero MetS component count at screening. Central obesity carried an OR of 7.5 (p < 0.01), which far exceeded other risk factors (all ORs < 2.7). Synergistic effects on MetS development existed between coupling MetS components: 1. High blood pressure plus low-HDL demonstrated an OR of 11.7 (p < 0.01) for MetS development and an SI of 4.7 (95% CI, 2.1-10.9). 2. High blood pressure plus hyperglycemia had an OR of 7.9 (p < 0.01), and an SI of 2.7 (95% CI, 1.2-6.4).    Conclusion  MetS component count and combination can be used in predicting MetS development for participants potentially at risk. Worksite MetS screening programs simultaneously allow for finding out cases and for assessing risk of MetS development.

Worksite health screening programs for predicting the development of Metabolic Syndrome in middle-aged employees: a five-year follow-up study