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Background  To make well informed treatment decisions for their patients, clinicians need credible information about potential risk for substantial weight gain. We therefore conducted a post-hoc analysis of clinical trial data, examining early weight gain as a predictor of later substantial weight gain.    Methods  Data from 669 (Study 1) and 102 (Study 2) olanzapine-treated patients diagnosed with schizophrenia, schizophreniform, or schizoaffective disorder were analyzed to identify and validate weight gain cut-offs at Weeks 1–4 that were predictive of substantial weight gain (defined as an increase of ≥ 5, 7, 10 kg or 7% of baseline weight) after approximately 30 weeks of treatment. Baseline characteristics alone, baseline characteristics plus weight change from baseline to Weeks 1, 2, 3 or 4, and weight change from baseline to Weeks 1, 2, 3, or 4 alone were evaluated as predictors of substantial weight gain. Similar analyses were performed to determine BMI increase cut-offs at Weeks 1–4 of treatment that were predictive of substantial increase in BMI (1, 2 or 3 kg/m 2  increase from baseline).    Results  At Weeks 1 and 2, predictions based on early weight gain plus baseline characteristics were more robust than those based on early weight gain alone. However, by Weeks 3 and 4, there was little difference between the operating characteristics associated with these two sets of predictors. The positive predictive values ranged from 30.1% to 73.5%, while the negative predictive values ranged from 58.1% to 89.0%. Predictions based on early BMI increase plus baseline characteristics were not uniformly more robust at any time compared to those based on early BMI increase alone. The positive predictive values ranged from 38.3% to 83.5%, while negative predictive values ranged from 42.1% to 84.7%. For analyses of both early weight gain and early BMI increase, results for the validation dataset were similar to those observed in the primary dataset.    Conclusion  Results from these analyses can be used by clinicians to evaluate risk of substantial weight gain or BMI increase for individual patients. For instance, negative predictive values based on data from these studies suggest approximately 88% of patients who gain less than 2 kg by Week 3 will gain less than 10 kg after 26–34 weeks of olanzapine treatment. Analysis of changes in BMI suggests that approximately 84% of patients who gain less than .64 kg/m 2  in BMI by Week 3 will gain less than 3 kg/m 2  in BMI after 26–34 weeks of olanzapine treatment. Further research in larger patient populations for longer periods is necessary to confirm these results.

bmc psychiatry

Early evaluation of patient risk for substantial weight gain during olanzapine treatment for schizophrenia, schizophreniform, or schizoaffective disorder