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Background and objective  Different lung function trajectories through life can lead to COPD in adulthood. This study investigated whether circulating levels of biomarkers can differentiate those with accelerated (AD) from normal decline (ND) trajectories.    Methods  The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) is a general population study that measured spirometry and followed up participants from ages 7 to 53 years. Based on their forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) trajectories from age 7 to 53 years, this analysis included those with COPD at age 53 years (60 with AD and 94 with ND) and controls (n=720) defined as never-smokers with an average FEV 1  trajectory. Circulating levels of selected biomarkers determined at 53 and 45 years of age were compared between trajectories.    Results  Results showed that CC16 levels (an anti-inflammatory protein) were lower and C-reactive protein (CRP) (a pro-inflammatory marker) higher in the AD than in the ND trajectory. Higher CC16 levels were associated with a decreased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=0.79 (0.63–0.98) per unit increase) relative to ND trajectory. Higher CRP levels were associated with an increased risk of belonging to the AD trajectory (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.00–1.13, per unit increase). Levels of CC16 (area under the curve (AUC)=0.69, 95% CI: 0.56–0.81, p=0.002), CRP (AUC=0.63, 95% CI: 0.53–0.72, p=0.01) and the combination of both (AUC=0.72, 95% CI: 0.60–0.83, p&lt;0.001) were able to discriminate between the AD and ND trajectories. Other quantified biomarkers (interleukin (IL)-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-10 and tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α)) were not significantly different between AD, ND and controls.    Conclusions  Circulating levels of CRP and CC16 measured in late adulthood identify different lung function trajectories (AD  versus  ND) leading to COPD at age 53 years.

Lung function trajectory and biomarkers in the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study