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Background   The association between baseline and temporal changes in physical activity and incident hypertension or diabetes mellitus in initially non-hypertensive or non-diabetic subjects is rarely known.Methods   Among individuals who underwent consecutive comprehensive health screenings, their physical activity level was measured using a self-reported international physical activity questionnaire. First, subjects were classified into four categories: no regular physical activity with a sedentary lifestyle; minimal physical activity (&lt;75 min/week); insufficient physical activity (≥75 min but &lt;150 min/week); and sufficient physical activity (≥150 min/week). Second, subjects were sub-grouped, based on temporal changes in physical activity level between baseline and consecutive follow-up: increase, no change, and decrease.Results   Finally, among 174,314 subjects (mean age 36.7 ± 6.9 years), 5544 (3.18%) and 21,276 (12.2%) developed incident diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension, respectively. After a multivariate adjustment, sufficient baseline physical activity was associated with significantly lower risk for incident hypertension (hazard ratio 0.89; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.97), but the difference was not significant, and showed a lower trend in diabetes mellitus incidence (hazard ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.69 to 1.04) in reference to no regular physical activity group. Regardless of the baseline physical activity level, subjects with a temporal increase in physical activity showed significantly decreased risk for incident hypertension (hazard ratio 0.93; 95% CI 0.87 to 0.99) and diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 0.83; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.92) compared with those with a temporal decrease in their physical activity level.Conclusion   Both sufficient baseline physical activity level and its temporal increase were associated with a lower risk of incident hypertension and diabetes mellitus in a large, relatively healthy, cohort.

Association of baseline level of physical activity and its temporal changes with incident hypertension and diabetes mellitus