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At present, the main purpose of gas turbine fault prediction is to predict the performance decline trend of the whole system, but the quantitative and thorough performance health index (PHI) research of every major component is lacking. Regarding the issue above, a long-short term memory and gas path analysis (GPA) based gas turbine fault diagnosis and prognosis method is proposed, which realizes the coupling of fault diagnosis and prognosis process. The measurable gas path parameters (GPPs) and the health parameters (HP) of every main component of the goal engine are obtained through the adaptive modeling strategy and the gas path diagnosis method based on the thermodynamic model. The predictive model of the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) network combines the measurable GPPs and the diagnostic HPs to predict the HPs of each major component in the future. Simulation experiments show that the proposed method can effectively diagnose and predict detailed, quantified, and accurate PHIs of the main components. Among them, the maximum root mean square error (RMSE) of the diagnosed component HPs do not exceed 0.193%. The RMSE of the best prediction model is 0.232%, 0.029%, 0.069%, and 0.043% in the HP prediction results of each component, respectively.

Long-short term memory and gas path analysis based gas turbine fault diagnosis and prognosis