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The purpose of this study was to fit theoretical models of prediction to urban students’ decisions to enroll and persist in music ensembles using academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), number of parents/guardians at home, mobility, ethnicity, and sex as explanatory variables. Through multinomial logistic regression, I built predictive models for initial enrollment (i.e., 6th grade) and retention (8th and 10th grades) in band, string, and choir electives. At each grade level, predictive models supported differentiation between band, string, and choir students from nonmusic students on most factors as well as differences between instrumental and choir students. Choir students were differentiated from instrumental students in terms of academic achievement, SES, family structure, and mobility. These factors revealed more congruence with the population of nonmusic students than instrumental students. Factors influencing initial enrollment in band, string, and choir remained relatively stable over retention models, with notable exceptions: SES became a weaker predictor of band enrollment in high school, whereas number of parents/guardians at home became more salient for this group. All music participation was predicted by academic achievement; however, this was evidenced only in reading test scores for choir participants, whereas math and reading achievement predicted enrollments in instrumental music electives.

Selected Nonmusic Predictors of Urban Students’ Decisions to Enroll and Persist in Middle and High School Music Ensemble Electives