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This study examines how tornado risk and societal exposure interact to create tornado disaster potential in the United States. Finescale historical and projected demographic data are used in a set of region-specific Monte Carlo tornado simulations to reveal how societal development has shaped, and will continue to shape, tornado disaster frequency and consequences. Results illustrate that although the U.S. Midwest contains the greatest built-environment exposure and the central plains experience the most significant tornadoes, the midsouth contains the greatest tornado disaster potential. This finding is attributed to the relatively elevated tornado risk and accelerated growth in developed land area that characterizes the midsouth region. Disaster potential is projected to amplify in the United States due to increasing built-environment development and its spatial footprint in at-risk regions. In the four regions examined, both average annual tornado impacts and associated impact variability are p...

Observed and Projected Changes in United States Tornado Exposure