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The results of a multimodel forecasting effort to predict mountain wave–induced polar stratospheric\udclouds (PSCs) for airborne science during the third Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III)\udOzone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE)/Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone\ud(THESEO 2000) Arctic ozone campaign are assessed. The focus is on forecasts for five flights of NASA’s\udinstrumented DC-8 research aircraft in which PSCs observed by onboard aerosol lidars were identified as\udwave related. Aircraft PSC measurements over northern Scandinavia on 25–27 January 2000 were accurately\udforecast by the mountain wave models several days in advance, permitting coordinated quasi-\udLagrangian flights that measured their composition and structure in unprecedented detail. On 23 January\ud2000 mountain wave ice PSCs were forecast over eastern Greenland. Thick layers of wave-induced ice PSC\udwere measured by DC-8 aerosol lidars in regions along the flight track where the forecasts predicted\udenhanced stratospheric mountain wave amplitudes. The data from these flights, which were planned using\udthis forecast guidance, have substantially improved the overall understanding of PSC microphysics within\udmountain waves. Observations of PSCs south of the DC-8 flight track on 30 November 1999 are consistent\udwith forecasts of mountain wave–induced ice clouds over southern Scandinavia, and are validated locally\udusing radiosonde data. On the remaining two flights wavelike PSCs were reported in regions where no\udmountain wave PSCs were forecast. For 10 December 1999, it is shown that locally generated mountain\udwaves could not have propagated into the stratosphere where the PSCs were observed, confirming conclusions\udof other recent studies. For the PSC observed on 14 January 2000 over northern Greenland, recent\udwork indicates that nonorographic gravity waves radiated from the jet stream produced this PSC, confirming\udthe original forecast of no mountain wave influence. This forecast is validated further by comparing with\uda nearby ER-2 flight segment to the south of the DC-8, which intercepted and measured local stratospheric\udmountain waves with properties similar to those predicted. In total, the original forecast guidance proves to\udbe consistent with PSC data acquired from all five of these DC-8 flights. The work discussed herein\udhighlights areas where improvements can be made in future wave PSC forecasting campaigns, such as use\udof anelastic rather than Boussinesq linearized gridpoint models and a need to forecast stratospheric gravity\udwaves from sources other than mountains

Mountain Wave–Induced Polar Stratospheric Cloud Forecasts for Aircraft Science Flights during SOLVE/THESEO 2000