English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Operational forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis has improved in recent years but still can be a challenge. Output from global numerical models continues to serve as a primary source of forecast guidance. Bulk verification statistics (e.g., critical success index) of TC genesis forecasts indicate that, overall, global models are increasingly able to predict TC genesis. However, as global model configurations are updated, TC genesis verification statistics will change. This study compares operational and retrospective forecasts from three configurations of NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) to quantify the impact of model upgrades on TC genesis forecasts. First, bulk verification statistics from a homogeneous sample of model initialization cycles during the period 2013–14 are compared. Then, composites of select output fields are analyzed in an attempt to identify any key differences between hit and false alarm events. Bulk statistics indicate that TC genesis forecast performance decreasedwith the implementation of the 2015 version of theGFS, but thenmodestly recoveredwith the 2016 version of the model. In addition, the composite analysis suggests that false alarm forecasts in the 2015 version of theGFSmay have been the result of inaccurately forecasting the location and/or strength of upper-level troughs poleward of the TC. There is also evidence of convective feedbacks occurring, such as ridging above the low-level circulation and upper-level convective outflow that were too strong, in this same set of false alarm forecasts. Overall, analyzing retrospective forecasts can assist forecasters in determining the strengths and weaknesses associated with a new configuration of a global model with respect to TC genesis.

A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast Verification from Three Global Forecast System (GFS) Operational Configurations