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The performance of summer precipitation prediction skill of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1; hereafter CSM) over the East Asia–west Pacific (EA–WP) region indicates the need for further development in order to improve model prediction skill. Two methods, namely the statistical alone prediction and the statistical and model combined prediction, are proposed to improve prediction skill. For the former, more than 2000 combinations of precursory predictors are considered in the predictive model; both most similar and dissimilar information are considered in the prediction process. For the latter, both the statistical analog information and the CSM’s forecast are considered in the predictive model; this new prediction method is based on merging information from both a dynamical model and historical analogs. Cross validation of summer precipitation over EA–WP for the years 1991–2010 shows that the average spatial anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of the statistical alone ...

Methods for Improving the Prediction Skill of Summer Precipitation over East Asia–West Pacific