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Operational Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model forecasts run over Dugway Proving Ground (DPG) in northwest Utah, produced by the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command Four-Dimensional Weather System (4DWX), underpredict the amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle during September and October. Mean afternoon [2000 UTC (1300 LST)] and early morning [1100 UTC (0400 LST)] 2-m temperature bias errors evaluated against 195 surface stations using 6- and 12-h forecasts are –1.37° and 1.66°C, respectively. Bias errors relative to soundings and 4DWX-DPG analyses illustrate that the afternoon cold bias extends from the surface to above the top of the planetary boundary layer, whereas the early morning warm bias develops in the lowest model levels and is confined to valleys and basins. These biases are largest during mostly clear conditions and are caused primarily by a regional overestimation of near-surface soil moisture in operational land surface analyses, which do not currently assimilate in...

Regional Soil Moisture Biases and Their Influence on WRF Model Temperature Forecasts over the Intermountain West