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AbstractA situation-dependent intensity and intensity spread prediction technique for the Atlantic called the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) is developed using the same procedures as for a similar technique for the western North Pacific that is operational at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. These simple techniques are based on rankings of the 10 best historical track analogs to match the official track forecast and current intensity. A key step is the development of a bias correction to eliminate an overforecast bias. The second key step is a calibration of the original intensity spread among the 10 analogs to achieve a probability of detection of about 68% at all forecast intervals, which it is proposed would be an appropriate intensity spread for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official intensity forecasts. The advantages of WAIA as an operational intensity forecast product for Atlantic tropical cyclones are described in terms of mean absolute errors, sample-mean biases, and geographic ...

Weighted Analog Technique for Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones