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The impact of assimilating synoptic surveillance dropwindsonde data on the analysis and forecast of the structure and intensity of Tropical Storm Karen (2013) was examined. Data-denial experiments were conducted using the NCEP hybrid 3D ensemble–variational GSI and forecasts were made using the NCEP GFS model. The assimilation of dropwindsonde data resulted in a slightly more tilted tropical cyclone vortex, stronger vertical wind shear, and more upper-tropospheric dry air west of Karen in the initial conditions. These differences grew with time in the GFS forecasts, and resulted in a weaker and more sheared vortex by 24 h in the forecast that included the dropwindsonde data. After 24 h, the cyclone reintensified in the experiment where dropwindsonde data were excluded, likely because of moist processes in a favorable region for synoptic-scale ascent ahead of a baroclinic trough. In contrast, the forecast including the dropwindsonde data kept Karen weak and also did a better job forecasting the str...

The Impact of Supplemental Dropwindsonde Data on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Storm Karen (2013) in the NCEP Global Forecast System