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Twice-daily 48-h tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts were produced for the fall 2010 Atlantic hurricane season using the Advanced Research core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model on a large 4-km grid covering much of the northern Atlantic. WRF forecasts initialized from operational Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses based on the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system and from experimental global ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) analyses, and corresponding global GFS forecasts were intercompared. For the track, WRF forecasts show improvement over GFS forecasts using either set of initial conditions (ICs). The EnKF-initialized GFS and WRF are also better than the corresponding GSI-initialized forecasts, but the difference is not always statistically significant. At all lead times, the WRF track errors are comparable to or smaller than the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official track forecast error, with those of the...

weather and forecasting

Track and Intensity Forecasting of Hurricanes: Impact of Convection-Permitting Resolution and Global Ensemble Kalman Filter Analysis on 2010 Atlantic Season Forecasts