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The predictability and dynamics of the warm-core mesovortex associated with the northern flank of the 8 May 2009 “super derecho” event are examined by coupling the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter implementation within the Data Assimilation Research Testbed facility. Cycled analysis started at 1200 UTC 2 May 2009, with observations assimilated every 6 h until 1200 UTC 7 May 2009, at which time a 50-member ensemble of 36-h convection-allowing ensemble forecasts were launched. The ensemble forecasts all simulated a mesoscale convective system, but only 7 out of 50 members produced a warm-core mesovortex-like feature similar in intensity to the observed mesovortex.Ensemble sensitivity and composite analyses were conducted to analyze the environmental differences between ensemble members. A more amplified upstream upper-level trough near the time of observed convection initiation is associated with a stronger simulated mesovortex. The ...

Predictability and Dynamics of Warm-Core Mesoscale Vortex Formation with the 8 May 2009 “Super Derecho” Event