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Using special data from the field campaign of 2008 and an ensemble Kalman filter–based vortex initialization method, this study explores the impact of different track clusters categorized under the ensemble simulations of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) on the associated precipitation. In particular, the distinct pattern of cumulative frequencies in the 28 members is identified to correspond to three types of track clusters. The simulation integrated from the initial ensemble mean slightly underestimates the maximum amount of the observed rainfall in central Taiwan by about 30%. The quantitative evaluation based on the equitable threat score indicates that members with tracks close to the best track produce more consistent rainfall distribution in northern Taiwan although their cumulative frequencies are underestimated. For members with southwestward-biased tracks, although the cumulative frequencies are closer to the observation, the simulated rainfall pattern is less consistent with the observation in no...

Uncertainty and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Based on Ensemble Simulations of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)